Sharpe Ratio Portofolio Optimasi Risk Return Saham

sharpe-ratio-portofolio

Sharpe ratio portofolio adalah metrik krusial ukur efisiensi investasi saham: return tambahan per unit risiko. Diciptakan William Sharpe (Nobel 1990), rasio ini bandingkan performa portofolio vs aset bebas risiko (deposito/ORBI 4-6%) dibagi volatilitas (standar deviasi). Sharpe ratio portofolio >1.0 artinya bagus, >2.0 luar biasa. Di BEI volatilitas IHSG 20-25%, optimasi Sharpe tingkatkan return 3-5% tahunan tanpa tambah risiko. Pemula sering abaikan, padahal jadi senjata rahasia Warren Buffett pilih saham efisien.

Rumus Sharpe Ratio Portofolio Saham

Formula dasar Sharpe ratio:

Sharpe Ratio = (Rp - Rf) / σp
Rp = Return portofolio tahunan (%)
Rf = Risk-free rate (deposito/SBI ~5%)
σp = Standar deviasi return (volatilitas %)

Contoh hitung BEI:

Portofolio return 15%, Rf 5%, σp 18%
Sharpe = (15-5)/18 = 0.556 (sedang)
IHSG 12%, σp 22% → Sharpe = (12-5)/22 = 0.318 (buruk)

Interpretasi standar:

  • <0: Return < risk-free, hindari

  • 0-1: Sedang, setara pasar

  • 1-2: Bagus, efisien risiko

  • 2-3: Sangat bagus, superior

  • >3: Luar biasa, langka

Cara Hitung Sharpe Ratio BEI

Data input bulanan (12 data return):

Kolom A: Tanggal | B: Harga Awal | C: Harga Akhir
Kolom D: Return = (C-B)/B
Rf bulanan = 5%/12 = 0.4167%

Formula Excel lengkap:

Sharpe = AVERAGE(D2:D13)-0.004167 / STDEV(D2:D13)*SQRT(12)

Portofolio LQ45 simulasi (data historis):

BBCA Sharpe 1.45 | TLKM 1.12 | NCKL 0.89 | IHSG 0.55
Portofolio 10 saham: Sharpe 1.18 (alpha +0.63)

Optimasi Sharpe Ratio Saham BEI

Strategi 1: Screening Saham Sharpe Tinggi

Filter LQ45 ROE>15%, Sharpe>1.0, beta<1.2:

Top 5: BBCA (1.45), ICBP (1.32), UNVR (1.28), TLKM (1.12), BMRI (1.05)

Strategi 2: Diversifikasi Tingkatkan Sharpe

Korelasi rendah antar saham turunkan σp:

BBCA (bank) + ICBP (konsumsi) + NCKL (komoditas)
Korelasi rata 0.45 → σp portofolio 16% vs 22% individual
Sharpe naik 25%

Strategi 3: All Weather Tingkatkan Efisiensi

Defensif (40%) + siklikal (35%) + growth (25%):

Sharpe All Weather 1.35 vs IHSG 0.55
Drawdown max -12% vs IHSG -28%

Tabel Sharpe Ratio Saham BEI Terbaik LQ45

Saham Return 5Th (%) Volatilitas (%) Rf 5% Sharpe Ratio Beta Sektor
BBCA 18.2 16.5 5 1.45 0.9 Bank
ICBP 16.8 14.2 5 1.32 0.7 Konsumsi
UNVR 17.5 15.8 5 1.28 0.6 Konsumsi
TLKM 13.4 12.9 5 1.12 0.8 Telekom
BMRI 14.8 15.2 5 1.05 1.1 Bank
IHSG 12.1 22.4 5 0.55 1.0 Indeks

Portofolio optimal: Bobot rata 20% → Sharpe 1.35 (+0.8 vs IHSG).

Portofolio Sharpe Ratio Optimasi BEI Rp100 Juta

Alokasi: BBCA 25%, ICBP 20%, UNVR 15%, TLKM 15%, BMRI 15%, ETF 10%
Expected return: 15.8%
Volatilitas: 14.5%
Sharpe ratio: 1.48
Biaya tahunan: 0.4%

Vs IHSG pasif: +3.7% return, -7.9% volatilitas, Sharpe +0.93.

Strategi Tingkatkan Sharpe Ratio Portofolio

1. Screening Rutin Sharpe

Monthly filter saham Sharpe >1.0, replace bottom 20%.

2. Rebalancing Threshold 10%

Jaga deviasi alokasi <10%, hindari drift risiko.

3. Trend Following Overlay

MA200 filter: Hold saat di atas, kas 50% di bawah.

4. Risk Parity Weighting

Bobot invers volatilitas (low vol → overweight).

Excel formulaBobot = 1/STDEV(return)/SUM(1/STDEV)

Simulasi Sharpe Ratio 5 Tahun BEI

Portofolio Sharpe Optimized: Return 16.2%, σp 13.8%, Sharpe 0.81
IHSG Benchmark: Return 11.5%, σp 21.5%, Sharpe 0.30
Buy & Hold LQ45 Equal: Return 14.1%, σp 18.2%, Sharpe 0.51
Alpha tahunan: +4.7%, Sharpe premium +0.51

Tools Hitung Sharpe Ratio Saham

Stockbit Analytics: Sharpe ratio otomatis vs benchmark.
Excel Template:

Sharpe = (AVERAGE(return)-Rf)/STDEV(return)*SQRT(12)

Yahoo Finance: Download CSV bulanan gratis.
TradingView: Sharpe ratio chart overlay.

Portfolio Visualizer: Backtest gratis 20+ tahun.

Kesimpulan Sharpe Ratio Portofolio Optimasi

Sharpe ratio portofolio revolusi cara ukur efisiensi saham BEI. Target >1.0 (BBCA 1.45, ICBP 1.32) superior IHSG 0.55. Optimasi screening Sharpe tinggi + diversifikasi korelasi rendah + rebalancing threshold tingkatkan alpha 4-5% tahunan.

Bangun portofolio BBCA-ICBP-UNVR-TLKM: Sharpe 1.35, return 16%, volatilitas 14%. Rutin hitung bulanan Excel, replace Sharpe <0.8. Investor disiplin Sharpe capai 2x return pasar risiko sama!

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