Portofolio all weather saham dirancang tahan segala kondisi ekonomi: bull market, bear market, sideways, inflasi tinggi. Konsep Ray Dalio adaptasi BEI gabungkan saham defensif (tahan resesi), siklikal (boom recovery), growth (pertumbuhan tinggi) dengan alokasi dinamis. Strategi ini timeless, karena siklus ekonomi berulang: ekspansi → puncak → kontraksi → trough. Portofolio all weather target return 12-15% tahunan volatilitas terkendali <15%, superior IHSG standalone.
Apa Itu Portofolio All Weather Saham BEI
Portofolio all weather (semua cuaca) minimalkan drawdown ekstrem sambil tangkap upside bull market. Inspirasi Ray Dalio All Weather Bond (1987) adaptasi saham BEI:
Empat Kondisi Ekonomi:
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Ekspansi (60% probabilitas): Saham siklikal + growth unggul
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Inflasi Naik (20%): Komoditas + energi outperform
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Deflasi/Resesi (15%): Konsumsi pokok + utilitas lindungi
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Stagflasi (5%): Dividen aristokrat + kas
Alokasi dinamis sesuaikan siklus via rebalancing portofolio kuartalan.
Komponen Portofolio All Weather Saham BEI
Saham Defensif (40% – Tahan Resesi)
Konsumsi pokok, telekomunikasi, farmasi permintaan stabil:
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ICBP, UNVR, INDF (makanan/minuman esensial)
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TLKM, EXCL (layanan komunikasi must-have)
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KLBF, SRAJ (farmasi stabil)
Karakter: Beta <0.8, dividen 3-5%, drawdown <10% saat IHSG -30%.
Saham Siklikal (35% – Boom Ekonomi)
Finansial, properti, industri untung saat GDP growth:
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BBCA, BBRI, BMRI (bank NIM ekspansi)
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ASII, SMGR (infrastruktur semen)
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PWON, CTRA (properti rate cut)
Karakter: Beta 1.1-1.3, return +25% saat IHSG +20%.
Saham Growth (25% – Pertumbuhan Jangka Panjang)
Komoditas, teknologi, konsumer siklikal:
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NCKL, ANTM (nikel EV global demand)
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GOTO, BUKA (digital economy)
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AALI, LSIP (CPO biodiesel)
Karakter: Beta >1.5, volatilitas tinggi tapi upside +50% boom siklus.
Tabel Portofolio All Weather Alokasi Optimal
| Kondisi Ekonomi | Defensif (40%) | Siklikal (35%) | Growth (25%) | ETF/Kas (Extra) | Return Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekspansi | 30% (TLKM) | 45% (BBCA,ASII) | 25% (NCKL) | – | 18-22% |
| Inflasi Tinggi | 45% (ICBP) | 25% (Bank) | 30% (ANTM) | 5% Emas ETF | 12-15% |
| Resesi | 60% (UNVR,INDF) | 20% (BBRI) | 15% (TLKM) | 5% RDPU | 5-8% |
| Stagflasi | 50% (KLBF) | 20% (BMRI) | 20% (AALI) | 10% Kas | 8-10% |
Rebalancing kuartalan alihkan overweight ke underweight.
Contoh Portofolio All Weather Rp100 Juta
| Kategori | Saham | Lot | Estimasi Nilai | Alokasi (%) | ROE | Yield | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensif | ICBP | 4 | Rp16.000.000 | 16% | 16% | 2% | 0.7 |
| UNVR | 6 | Rp9.000.000 | 9% | 20% | 3% | 0.6 | |
| TLKM | 8 | Rp12.000.000 | 12% | 12% | 4.5% | 0.8 | |
| Siklikal | BBCA | 3 | Rp15.000.000 | 15% | 18% | 2.5% | 1.1 |
| BBRI | 5 | Rp12.500.000 | 12.5% | 15% | 5% | 1.2 | |
| ASII | 3 | Rp8.250.000 | 8.25% | 14% | 3% | 1.3 | |
| Growth | NCKL | 5 | Rp10.000.000 | 10% | 25% | 1% | 1.8 |
| GOTO | 10 | Rp5.000.000 | 5% | 8% | 0% | 2.0 | |
| R-LQ45 | 5 | Rp5.000.000 | 5% | 12% | 2% | 1.0 | |
| Kas | RDPU | – | Rp7.250.000 | 7.25% | – | 4.5% | 0 |
| TOTAL | Rp100.000.000 | 100% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 1.05 |
Strategi Portofolio All Weather Dinamis
Siklus Ekonomi Rotation
Ekspansi (PMI >55, GDP >5%): Overweight siklikal +5%, kurangi defensif.
Inflasi (CPI >4%): Tambah komoditas 10%, kurangi growth tech.
Resesi (PMI <45): Defensif 60%, siklikal 20%, growth 10%.
Recovery (Rate cut): Properti + industri +15%.
Rebalancing All Weather Kuartalan
Deviasi >12% dari target → alihkan overweight ke underweight siklus.
Simulasi Kinerja Portofolio All Weather 4 Tahun
| Tahun | Kondisi Ekonomi | IHSG | Portofolio All Weather | Drawdown Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Resesi | -12% | +2.1% | -8% |
| 2023 | Recovery | +15% | +18.4% | -5% |
| 2024 | Ekspansi | +22% | +19.8% | -7% |
| 2025 | Inflasi | +8% | +11.2% | -6% |
| CAGR | 8.2% | 12.9% | -6.5% |
Sharpe ratio: 1.15 vs IHSG 0.55.
Tools Bangun Portofolio All Weather Saham
Stockbit Screener: Filter ROE>15%, DER<1, yield>3% per siklus.
TradingView: Heatmap sektor BEI vs kondisi makro.
Excel Dynamic: Allocation matrix otomatis rotation.
Kesimpulan Portofolio All Weather Terbaik BEI
Portofolio all weather saham BEI revolusioner tahan resesi (+2% saat IHSG -12%), tangkap ekspansi (+20% vs IHSG +15%). Alokasi defensif 40%, siklikal 35%, growth 25% beri CAGR 12.9% drawdown max -8%.
Dinamis rotation kuartalan: overweight siklikal saat PMI>55, defensif saat resesi. Rebalancing 12% threshold hemat biaya. Mulai Rp10 juta: 40% TLKM/ICBP, 35% BBCA/ASII, 25% NCKL. 10 tahun compound Rp100 juta jadi Rp340 juta!